Fact: Analyzing which rumors have been right
I despise the current rumor about the cutoff being July 13 (naturally). So I just spent about 40 minutes looking back through my archives to analyze whether the rumors in the past have been right or not. Here's what I found:
Apr 1: Next referrals coming earlier than expected (before end of Apr) FALSE
Apr 7: Referrals will come in later this month and will include LIDs up to June 10. FALSE
Apr 7: The April referral batch will cover May 31 to June 3. FALSE
Apr 7: It will take the CCAA three months to get through the June LIDs. FALSE, 4 MOS
Apr 7: The April referral batch will only include the huge May 31 day. FALSE
Apr 7: The April referral batch will only include part of the May 31 LIDs. FALSE
Apr 14: One big agency says expect referrals mailed end of next week. FALSE
Apr 14: Another big agency says May 31 thru first week of June. TRUE
Apr 19: 3 sources say the next batch will be May 31 thru Jun 6. TRUE
Apr 19: Referrals could still be mailed by Apr 21 & delivered 2 to 4 biz days later. FALSE
Apr 25: CCAA website updated, referrals are for May 31 - Jun 6
Apr 27: Referrals delivered
May 5: June batch will be June 7 thru June 29 or 30 FALSE
May 5: June batch will be Jun 7 through June 19-23 FALSE
May 5: June batch will be one week's worth, June 7-13 FALSE
May 11: Spanish board says Jun 7-20 FALSE
May 16: Lots of agencies saying CCAA will stand by 12 mo wait FALSE
May 16: A July LID heard she'd get her referral in June FALSE
May 16: Late June LIDer was told not to expect a referral in May TRUE
May 16: An agency tells late July LIDs to expect referral in Oct ???
May 17: PIAO agency says wait could increase to 18 mos ???
May 23: CCAA website updated, referrals are for Jun 7 - 15
May 26: Referrals delivered
Jun 13: Next referral batch will be June 16 through June 30 FALSE
Jun 13: Next referral batch will be June 16 through June 23 FALSE
Jun 13: New information coming on the 19th FALSE
Jun 13: Next referral batch will come faster FALSE
Jun 13:The CCAA is moving and it will affect the process FALSE THIS MONTH
Jun 15: Powerhouse agency says referrals will cover from June 16 through June 27 FALSE
Jun 19: 2 agencies say cutoff will be June 28 TRUE
Jun 22: CCAA website updated, referrals are for Jun 16- 28
Jun 26: Referrals delivered
Hmm. So what does that all really mean? My brain is kind of fried and I'll have to go get some chocolate and then come back and analyze it more. But at first glance, it seems like no one has a clue about anything early on. Is that what you guys see? Or do you see trends there that I'm missing? People seem to get their stories straight a few days before the CCAA website update, but prior to that things are all over the map.
We got the current "July 13 cutoff" rumor from the Spanish board last week (July 14), and as far as I can tell we haven't had any other dates thrown out there since. One or two other agencies are agreeing with the July 13 cutoff, but do they have their own information or are they just grabbing that date because it's the only one out there? You see, these are the insane things I do when I'm put in a situation where I have absolutely NO CONTROL and NO INFORMATION. It's nuts. Nuts!
Apr 1: Next referrals coming earlier than expected (before end of Apr) FALSE
Apr 7: Referrals will come in later this month and will include LIDs up to June 10. FALSE
Apr 7: The April referral batch will cover May 31 to June 3. FALSE
Apr 7: It will take the CCAA three months to get through the June LIDs. FALSE, 4 MOS
Apr 7: The April referral batch will only include the huge May 31 day. FALSE
Apr 7: The April referral batch will only include part of the May 31 LIDs. FALSE
Apr 14: One big agency says expect referrals mailed end of next week. FALSE
Apr 14: Another big agency says May 31 thru first week of June. TRUE
Apr 19: 3 sources say the next batch will be May 31 thru Jun 6. TRUE
Apr 19: Referrals could still be mailed by Apr 21 & delivered 2 to 4 biz days later. FALSE
Apr 25: CCAA website updated, referrals are for May 31 - Jun 6
Apr 27: Referrals delivered
May 5: June batch will be June 7 thru June 29 or 30 FALSE
May 5: June batch will be Jun 7 through June 19-23 FALSE
May 5: June batch will be one week's worth, June 7-13 FALSE
May 11: Spanish board says Jun 7-20 FALSE
May 16: Lots of agencies saying CCAA will stand by 12 mo wait FALSE
May 16: A July LID heard she'd get her referral in June FALSE
May 16: Late June LIDer was told not to expect a referral in May TRUE
May 16: An agency tells late July LIDs to expect referral in Oct ???
May 17: PIAO agency says wait could increase to 18 mos ???
May 23: CCAA website updated, referrals are for Jun 7 - 15
May 26: Referrals delivered
Jun 13: Next referral batch will be June 16 through June 30 FALSE
Jun 13: Next referral batch will be June 16 through June 23 FALSE
Jun 13: New information coming on the 19th FALSE
Jun 13: Next referral batch will come faster FALSE
Jun 13:The CCAA is moving and it will affect the process FALSE THIS MONTH
Jun 15: Powerhouse agency says referrals will cover from June 16 through June 27 FALSE
Jun 19: 2 agencies say cutoff will be June 28 TRUE
Jun 22: CCAA website updated, referrals are for Jun 16- 28
Jun 26: Referrals delivered
Hmm. So what does that all really mean? My brain is kind of fried and I'll have to go get some chocolate and then come back and analyze it more. But at first glance, it seems like no one has a clue about anything early on. Is that what you guys see? Or do you see trends there that I'm missing? People seem to get their stories straight a few days before the CCAA website update, but prior to that things are all over the map.
We got the current "July 13 cutoff" rumor from the Spanish board last week (July 14), and as far as I can tell we haven't had any other dates thrown out there since. One or two other agencies are agreeing with the July 13 cutoff, but do they have their own information or are they just grabbing that date because it's the only one out there? You see, these are the insane things I do when I'm put in a situation where I have absolutely NO CONTROL and NO INFORMATION. It's nuts. Nuts!
posted by M3 at 2:09 PM
| Link
7 Comments:
Have a another piece of chocolate and relax. You are so close now your chances to relax will soon be over :o) I have been watching your site for months now and was lately clued into the annoying site run by the Rumor Queen. A quick scan of the site gives you the whole story. The sheer number of advertisers is sickening. I know we cant stop guessing but sites like RQs use us and our emotional roller coaster for profit. We are all simply dangling in the wind, waiting for the slightest tidbit to brighten our day and what do we get in return...a boatload of nothing. We come to your site to share in each others joy and pain and to hope! Nice job! What will all your little followers do when you are too busy with diapers to tend to us?
By
Anonymous, at 3:35 PM
Anon, it's my understanding that RQ put those ads up because she runs polls, etc. and the sheer volume of people visiting her site requires her to buy extra stuff for the site (the forum, for example). She doesn't do it for profit, she does it because it costs $ to run. This is my understanding. I think RQ does us a great service, frankly. Her site is one of the only ways I have ANY idea as to what's going on in China. My agency tells me nothing. I'd have no idea the CCAA was moving if it weren't for RQ. I loves me some RQ.
And I, for one, can't relax---this is my KID I'm waiting for!! ;)
M3, hang in there my sweets. If the cutoff is July 13, and I hope it's not, the month DOES go by quickly. And at least the CCAA will have already moved ;)
Karen, Naked ovary LID June 29
By
Anonymous, at 4:11 PM
I love the attempts RQ makes to keep us all sane too! She rocks in my opinion.
M3 it WILL not be long. It will bite if it is the batch after this one but you WILL make it.....we're all so eager to see Funshine!
Margaritas abound..and STILL keeping my fingers crossed for you to have good news this time around!
By
C's Mom, at 6:25 PM
I've sworn off RQ. I'm getting my rumors only from you! If you see a lot of clicks on your blog from Michigan.....it's little old me! Keep the rumors coming, M3. I'm having the shakes right now since giving up the RQ yesterday. I think I'll have a piece of chocolate too. Maybe a pound!! I'm still holding out that they are going to make it past the 13th!
By
Ava's family, at 6:29 PM
Thinking of you, M3, and hoping for the best!
By
Maggie, at 7:19 PM
I love RQ, it keeps me from going totally mad as long as I don't take it seriously. It;s my hobby to pass the time.
But as your analysis shows, the only thing we can predict for sure is that we can't predict. Around this point in the month we usually hear a slightly disappointing date that turns out to be true. The rest is just filler. Fun but filler.
By
Anonymous, at 2:53 AM
Think you're right, your timeline shows perfectly that no one knows anything until a couple of days before the referrals are sent out. I don't think for a second that July 13th is the cut-off, and I think there's a good chance that they'll get a little beyond that. Praying for it, anyway!
By
Anonymous, at 9:50 AM
Post a Comment
<< Home